The Heidelberg Institute for International Conflict Reserch (HIIK) annually publishes the Conflict Barometer, which describes recent trends in conflict development, escalations, settlements.
Four of the seven wars had already been fought out on this level of intensity in the previous years: Afghanistan (Taliban), Somalia (Islamist groups), and Sri Lanka (LTTE/northern and eastern Sri Lanka) all being wars for the fourth year running, while Pakistan (various Islamist militants) was a war for the third year running. The remaining three wars, Israel (Hamas/Palestine), Pakistan (Taliban - various tribes), and Yemen (al-Houthi) had all been classified as severe crisis in 2008. Thus, their escalation to wars indicated an intensification of already massive violence. Of those five of last year’s nine wars which were not again fought out on this level of intensity, three deescalated to severe crises, i.e. remained highly violent, whereas in two, violence ceased: Iraq (al-Sadr) and Russia - Georgia deescalated to manifest conflicts. The overall number of severe crises dropped considerably from 30 to 24: Only two of 2008’s severe crises escalated, while eleven deescalated to crises and five to manifest conflicts. The remaining eleven severe crises of 2008 were still fought out on this level of intensity in 2009. Of the remaining severe crises of 2009, three - already mentioned above - had been wars, while eight had been crises in 2008, and one a manifest conflict [!Nigeria (Boko Haram)]. Another one was classified as a severe crisis in the very year of its beginning: In Saudi Arabia, the infiltration of Yemeni al-Houthi rebels [! Yemen (al-Houthi rebels)] sparked a large-scale army offensive [! Saudi Arabia (al-Houthi rebels)]. The total number of conflicts rose by twelve, as 16 new conflicts emerged in 2009, while only four had ended in 2008. In addition, five conflicts were considered to have ended in 2009 so far. With eight, the majority of the new conflicts arose in sub-Saharan Africa. Three of these new conflicts related to the presidential line of succession: One in Gabon following to the death of President Omar Bongo [! Gabon (opposition)], another in Niger, as President Mamadou Tandja attempted to extend his mandate beyond the constitutional maximum of two terms [! Niger (opposition)], and the third in Madagascar, where military forces ousted President Marc Ravalomanana [! Madagascar (TGV - TIM)]. Furthermore, al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb extended its operations to Mali and Niger, sparking violent conflicts with the respective governments [! Mali (AQIM); Niger (AQIM)]. In addition, a new interstate conflict emerged between Angola and the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), as both countries claimed possession of a presumably oil-rich maritime territory [! Angola - DRC]. Another two new conflicts emerged between ethnic groups in the DRC [! DRC (Enyele - Boba)] and rival Islamist groups in Somalia [! Somalia (al Shabaab - Hizbul Islam)], respectively. Four new conflicts flared up in the Middle East and Maghreb, among them the severe crises with Yemeni al-Houthi rebels in Saudi Arabia, three in the Americas, and one in Europe. Of the five conflicts that ended in 2009 so far, one ended in Europe, none in sub-Saharan Africa, one in the Americas, two in Asia and Oceania, and one in the Middle East and Maghreb. In order to reveal a long-term trend, the five intensity levels were categorized into three groups: The two nonviolent levels were summarized as low intensity conflicts, crises as medium intensity conflicts, and severe crises and wars as conflicts of high intensity. The graph also displays the total number of conflicts observed. As the graph shows, the number of conflicts observed per year rose more or less continuously from 82 in 1945 to 365 in 2009. However, this increase must partly be considered as a statistical artefact, as the scope and quality of available information on current conflicts augmented considerably in recent years. Most of the observed conflicts were low-intensity conflicts. With regard to high-intensity conflicts, their number increased - for the most part - continuously and regularly until 1992, shortly after the decline of the Soviet Union, when an all-time high was reached with 51 high intensity conflicts. Afterwards, their number dropped sharply, but rose again until 2004. The last five years were marked by an oscillation of the number of highly-violent conflicts between 30 and 40, i.e. on a medium level, as well as by a sharp increase of crises. For these two reasons, this year’s decrease of high-intensity conflicts might rather be interpreted as only a short downwards amplitude than as a trend towards a world-wide deescalation.
The Heidelberg Institute for International Conflict Reserch (HIIK) at the Department of Political Science, University of Heidelberg: CONFLICT BAROMETER 2009 Crises - Wars - Coups d’E´ tat Negotiations - Mediations - Peace Settlements 18th ANNUAL CONFLICT ANALYSIS. Heidelberg 2009, 88 p.
http://hiik.de/en/konfliktbarometer/
